Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has sounded the alarm over a potential economic shock stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East, warning that Kenya could face a sharp surge in fuel prices in the coming weeks.
In a statement posted on his X account, Kuria cautioned that April could be “the toughest and most brutal month of all times” as the global economy begins to absorb the full impact of the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
He singled out the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes — as a major risk factor, noting that any disruption in the corridor could trigger a significant global energy crisis.
According to Kuria, interference with oil supply through the Hormuz channel would constrain global supply, inevitably driving up fuel prices across the world.
For import-dependent countries like Kenya, the effects could be swift and severe.
He projected that local pump prices could rise to between Ksh 230 and Ksh 250 per litre, a spike that would pile further pressure on households and businesses already struggling with a high cost of living.
Kuria, however, cautioned the government against resorting to short-term relief measures, warning that such interventions could do more harm than good in the long run.
He dismissed fuel subsidies and tax cuts as “knee-jerk” reactions, arguing that they risk undermining the macroeconomic stability Kenya has worked to achieve in recent years.
“Messing up with the macroeconomic gains achieved so far will come with consequences that cannot be undone even two years after the war,” he warned.
Instead, Kuria urged Kenyans to prepare for a difficult period, describing the anticipated economic strain as a “bitter Hormuz pill” that the country must collectively endure.
At the same time, he expressed hope that global leaders would act with restraint to prevent further escalation. He called on key figures, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to “come back to their senses” and steer the world away from a deepening crisis.
