A new TIFA poll shows the 2027 presidential election shaping up as a two-horse race between President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, the face of the Linda Mwananchi movement.
The survey, made public on Thursday, put Ruto and Sifuna tied at 31 percent each if elections were held today.
Ruto’s rating rose from 18 percent in August 2022 to 31 percent in November 2026, while Sifuna climbed from 10 percent in May 2026 to 31 percent in the latest survey.
“This survey finds President Ruto tied with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna in terms of popularity regarding Kenyans’ preferred winner of next year’s presidential election, leaving aside the question of whether respondents expect or intend to vote,” TIFA noted.
The research firm said Sifuna’s standing as the preferred candidate could strengthen his hand in discussions about a possible united opposition candidate. Support for other opposition and potential candidates stood at a combined 19 percent, a figure that could push Sifuna closer to the 50 percent mark if their supporters rallied behind him.
“Still, if these popular figures and rankings persist, Sifuna’s status as the potential single or united opposition candidate, if there is one, will have to be acknowledged,” the report said.
Other political figures have seen their numbers slide. Jubilee Party leader Fred Matiang’i, who once topped the list, has dropped from 32 percent in August 2022 to five percent in November 2026.
Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka has fallen from 25 percent to nine percent over the same period. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua recorded four percent, while Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro received one percent.
