The Equitable Party(TEP) has announced its arrival on the Kenyan political scene in the most emphatic fashion possible, beating the Orange Democratic Movement(ODM) by a staggering margin in an opinion poll conducted by State House blogger Dennis Itumbi, leaving Ruto’s apologists and ODM’s old guard in a state of collective shock.
The poll was conducted barely 24 hours after Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna officially launched The Equitable Party(TEP) on Sunday, a party that had existed since 2022 with a modest membership but was transformed overnight into a national phenomenon the moment Sifuna put his name and energy behind it.
When the launch took place on Sunday, the party had approximately 30,000 registered members. By Monday midday, that number had exploded to over 1.3 million, a registration surge that has no parallel in Kenyan political history.
State House apologists, still in denial about the scale of Sifuna’s rise, moved quickly to dismiss the launch, with some publicly questioning the wisdom of leaving ODM for a new party they described as having no wheels and no established structures. It was a dismissal that aged very badly within hours.
Itumbi, a man whose loyalties to the ruling establishment are well known, ran an exit poll on his social media account asking Kenyans across all 47 counties to choose between TEP and ODM as the more popular party. The results were nothing short of seismic. The Equitable Party garnered 94 percent of the vote against ODM’s 6 percent, with over 14,000 Kenyans participating in the exercise.
The fact that a poll run by a State House insider produced such a lopsided result in favour of Sifuna’s brand new party is perhaps the most telling detail of all. When even the tools of the establishment cannot hide the wave, you know something genuinely extraordinary is happening.
Sifuna is no longer just a rising politician. He is a political tsunami, and the 2027 presidential race has just become a fundamentally different contest.
Here is the screenshot of the exit poll.
