TIFA, the opinion polling firm that confidently predicted a United Democratic Alliance(UDA) victory in the just-concluded Ol Kalou by-election, has once again released a poll that has left Kenyans thoroughly surprised.
Days before the Ol Kalou by-election, TIFA released a poll showing UDA candidate Sammy Muchina would win the election with 61 percent against Democracy for Citizens Party(DCP) candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho at 31 percent. Other candidates in the mini poll, TIFA estimated, would garner the remaining 5 percent combined.
But when the by-election came on July 16, 2026, the results told a completely different story. Sammy Muchina garnered only 13 percent while Sammy Kamau Ngotho of DCP secured a commanding 85 percent of the total votes cast.
Now, barely a week after the UDA candidate was whitewashed by DCP, TIFA, which many Kenyans believe is on the government payroll, has released another poll indicating that if elections were called today, President William Ruto would garner only 24 percent of the total votes cast. Nairobi County Senator Edwin Sifuna emerged second with 15 percent while former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka emerged third with 13 percent.
The poll also shows that former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i is at 14 percent while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, despite his resounding victory in Ol Kalou, is yet to hit double digits at 7 percent.
The survey, conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, among 2,048 respondents across nine zones, paints a picture of a deeply fragmented opposition landscape where support is spread across multiple candidates rather than consolidating behind one challenger.
Despite Ruto leading the race on paper, the poll suggests the President’s support is remarkably weak for an incumbent. Nearly twice as many Kenyans, 52 percent, oppose the Broad-Based Government compared to 30 percent who support it.
Regionally, Ruto retains most of his support in Northern Kenya while opposition figures dominate other regions.
TIFA’s own analysis admits that while Ruto remains the most popular single candidate, his standing at only one quarter of Kenyans suggests the opposition has considerable opportunity in next year’s election.
But Kenyans are now questioning the credibility of the pollster after their embarrassing Ol Kalou prediction. Many are asking how TIFA can be trusted to accurately gauge Ruto’s support when they got the by-election so spectacularly wrong.
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